SPA LERA project

Analysis and Synthesis of Loss Estimation &  Risk Assessment Methodologies for Prediction and Prevention of Catastrophes

Project SfP-981416

LERA project workshop

Critical Analysis of Current Loss Estimation and Risk Assessment Methodologies. Identification of Ways to Develop a Comprehensive Multi-Hazard Methodology.

International Institute of Engineering Safety 4, Maly Charitonyevsky street. Moscow. Russia May 31 – June 2, 2006

The Workshop is sponsored by NATO ‘Security through Science’ program.

The Workshop is an initial activity of a project funded by the North Atlantic Treaty Organizationentitled Analysis and Synthesis of Loss Estimation & Risk Assessment Methodologies for Prediction and Prevention of Catastrophes whose goal is the development of methods and software for Open Source risk analysis. 

Purpose.

The purpose of the Workshop is to exchange information on existing and developing methods and software for Loss Estimation and Risk Assessment (LERA). Participants will present methods and engage in a discussion on key points constituting a general methodology for risk analysis. Another key element of the Workshop discussion will be protocols for linking with other relevant risk-related Open Source software. A proposed framework for development of an Open Source Risk model based on this general methodology will be presented for comment.

Co-Directors:

Dr. Charles Scawthorn, SPA Risk LLC USA, and Kyoto University, Japan.  744 Creston Rd., Berkeley CA 94708,

Dr. Vitaly P. Petrov. International Institute of Engineering Safety,

4 Malyi Kcharitonyevsky lane, Moscow, 101990, Russia.

Dr. Anatoly I. Zaporogets. Research Deputy director, Civil Defense and Disaster Management Research, Inst. of the Russian Min. of Emergency Situations

The project is being organized by a joint committee, and the draft agenda is shown on the next page

Organizing Committee

Name	Affiliation
Dr. Charles Scawthorn NATO Project Director	SPA Risk LLC USA, and Kyoto University, Japan
Dr. Fred Krimgold co-Project Director	Virginia Tech Institute for Disaster Risk Management, USA
Dr. Keith Porter co-Project Director	SPA Risk LLC and CalTech, USA
Dr.Vitaly P. Petrov Russia Project Director	Director, Intl. Inst. of Engineering Safety, Russia
Dr. Anatoly I. Zaporogets co-Project Director	Research Deputy director, Civil Defense and Disaster Management Research, Inst. of the Russian Min. of Emergency Situations
Dr. Dmitry O. Reznikov co-Project Director	Senior Researcher. Institute for Machine Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Mikhail I. Faleev co-Project Director	Head, Dept. for Emergencies Prevention and Response  Situations, Min. of Emergency Situations

AGENDA NATO WORKSHOP
MOSCOW, 31 May - 2 Jun 2006

Wednesday 31 May, 2006 (Institute for Machine Sciences, RAS)

10.00		Welcomes
10.15		Participants self-introduction
10.30		C. Scawthorn. Purpose of Workshop
10.45		K. Porter. Survey of LERA Methods – NATO
11.30		V. Avdotyin. Estimation of Losses Inflicted by Natural Catastrophes and Technological Accidents as a Interdisciplinary Problem. A. Grazhdankin. Risk Analysis and Loss Estimation in Cases of Accidents at High Risk Facilities in the Process of Industrial Safety Declaration.
12.30		Break
12.45		E. Durukal. Kandilli Loss Software
13.15		Yu.Matvienko, S.Galchenko Problems of Accident Risk Assessment and Potential Loss Appraisal in Oil, Gas and Chemical Industry. S.A. Timashev. Internet-based Methods for Assessing Damage and Operational Risk for Critical Infrastructures. Yu. Trofimenko. Damages monitoring and estimation at surface transport functioning. O. Kovalevich.  The Analysis of Risk Management Costs Including Compensation Costs and Insurance Mechanisms. V. Moskvichev. Determination of Risks and Failures of Technical Systems Using Computational -Experiment Methods. V. Zatsarinny. Some Approaches to the Estimation of Losses  from Natural Catastrophes and Industrial Accidents in the CIS countries
15.00		Lunch
16.00		M. Erdik EU NERIES Project
16.45		Open Source Risk Modeling Needs
18.15		Summary and Outline for Next Day
18.30		bus back to hotel - Free evening
Thursday  1 June 2006 (Ministry of Emergency Situations)
10.00	M. Faleev Welcoming in the Ministry of Emergency Situations
10.20	Visit to Center for Decision Making Support A.Epikhin. Methods for Estimation of Losses from Fires of Natural Character and from Floods on Agricultural Fields.
11.00	Visit to Center for Monitoring and Prediction of Emergencies. S.Kachanov GIS-Extremum
11.40	Break
12.00	Yu.Larionov Fundamentals for Development of a Comprehensive Loss Estimation Methodology
13.00	Lunch
14.00	Yu.Podrezov. Methodological Basis for Estimation of Losses and Assessment of Risks Related to Forest Fires.
14.30	Y.Takahashi OpenSees project.
15.00	A. Lerner-Lam. Global Natural Hazard Risk Identification and Loss  Estimation: Link to Economic Development..
15.30	Ia. Vishnyakov. Ecological & Economical Consequences of Emergency Situations, Role of Human Factor.
16.00	V.Avdotyin. Scientific-methodical approach to the creating of united interagency system of loss estimation from emergencies of technological, natural and terrorist character.
16.30	Framework for Development of an Open Source Risk Model
17.30	C.Scawthorn, D.Reznikov, Summary and Outline for Next Day
18.00	Dinner
	Bus to hotel
Friday 2 June 2006 (Institutefor Machine Sciences, RAS)
9.00	Cultural Tour of Kremlin
12.00	break
13.00	R. Akhmetkhanov. Social Losses and Features of their Estimation. D. Reznikmov. Quantitative Assessment of Terrorist Risks V. Portnov. Conception for a Risk Verification, Safety, Resource and Losses Complex Technical System in Terms of Energy Information Analizer. R. Taranov The Analysis of the Main Causes for the Initiation and Development of Accidents at Trunk Pipelines. Laws and Norms of their Protection in Russia and Abroad.
14.30	lunch
15.30	OSR Technical and Software Needs – Next Steps
17.00	Scawthorn, Reznikov, Recap and Synthesis of Plan for LERA Development
17.30	Petrov, Scawthorn Summary and Meeting Closure
18.00	bus back to hotel - free evening

PARTICIPANTS OF THE WORKSHOP.

On the NATO side and Japan.

Mustafa ERDIK.
Professor. Boðazici University. Turkey

Eser DURUKAL
Assistant Professor. Boðazici University. Turkey

Arthur LERNER-LAM
Professor. Columbia University. USA

Keith A. PORTER
Senior Researcher. California Institute of technology, USA

Charles SCAWTHORN.
Professor. SPA Risk LLC USA, and Kyoto University

Yoshikazu TAKAHASHI
Kyoto University.  Japan

On the Russian side:

Rasim S. AKHMETHANOV Leading researcher. Institute for Machine Sciences, RAS

Vladimir P. AVDOTIN Civil Defense and Disaster Management Research Institute of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.

Alexander V. EPIKHIN Head of the Department. Civil Defense and Disaster Management Research Institute of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.

Michail I. FALEYEV Head of the Department Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia

Konstantin V. FROLOV Director. Institute for Machines Science

Nina I. FROLOVA Seismological center. Institute for Geoecology RAS

Mikhail M. GADENIN Leading researcher. Institute for Machine Sciences, RAS

GALCHENKO Sergey  .

A.I. GRAZDANKIN Head of the Laboratory. Science and Engineering Center ‘Industrial Safety’

Sergey A.KACHANOV Deputy director. Civil Defense and Disaster Management Research Institute of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.

Oleg M. KOVALEVICH  Senior Researcher, Research  Center for Nuclear and Radiological Safety.

V. LARIONOV Director CIESK

Yury G. MATVIENKO Head of the laboratory. Institute for Machine Sciences, RAS.

Vladimir V. MOSKVICHEV Deputy director. Institute for Computational Modeling of the Siberian Branch of the RAS

Vitaly P. PETROV Director. International Institute of engineering safety

Yuryi V. PODREZOV Senor researcher. Civil Defense and Disaster Management Research Institute of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.

L.V. POLUYAN Deputy director. Science and Engineering Center ‘Reliability and Resource of Large Machine Systems’ Ural Branch RAS.

Valeriy PORTNOV Director. Nonprofit Organization “System Voluntary Certification “Sert-GRUPP”

Dmitry D. REZNIKOV Senior  Researcher Institute for Machine Sciences, RAS

Roman A. TARANOV Bauman State Technological University

Svyatoslav A. TIMASHEV Director. Science and Engineering Center ‘Reliability and Resource of Large Machine Systems’ Ural Branch RAS.

Yuri V.TROFIMENKO Head of the department. Automobile and road construction University

Yakov D.VISHNYAKOV Professor and Chare. State University of Management.

Anatoly I.ZAPOROGETS Deputy Director. Civil Defense and Disaster Management Research Institute of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.

Vladimir V.ZATSARINNY Scientific secretary. Interstate Council of the CIS-countries for Emergencies of Natural and Manmade Character.

 

Appendix 1.

Abstracts of Key-note speakers

Welcoming address.
Konstantin V. FROLOV.
Institute for Machine Sciences, RAS

The present workshop under the Project ‘Analysis and Synthesis of Loss Estimation &  Risk Assessment Methodologies for Prediction and Prevention of Catastrophes’ is a follow on to collaborative activity carried out by of Russian, European, US and Japanese specialists aimed at solving global problems related to natural and manmade hazard mitigation. In particular, the Russian Academy of Sciences working group ‘Risk and Safety’ is now in active collaboration with the National Academies of the US and with International Risk Governance Council

It is necessary to bear in mind that the problem of multihazard risk assessment is complex and interdisciplinary. Its solution requires analysis of technical, social, political, historical and cultural aspects of the problem.  In particular the problem of harmonization of national legislative frameworks is a priority one. A number of these aspects are beyond the frame of our workshop. Since we are representatives of engineering community, we are primarily interested in reducing vulnerability of critical infrastructures towards catastrophes, developing protection systems, allocation of resources, planning response and recovery operations after major catastrophes.

We can hope that the project implementation will contribute to development of risk assessment framework that will allow to predict and mitigate possible consequences of catastrophes.

Setting of the Tasks on the International

Cooperation in the Field of Risk Analysis.

Vitaly P. Petrov. International Institute of Engineering Safety.

Methods for analysis of risks related to natural and manmade hazards have been developed in Russia since 1991 under the following programs:

Federal State Program ‘Safety of Population and Industrial Facilities Taking into Account Risks of Natural and Manmade Catastrophes’; Federal Special-Purpose Program ‘Reduction of Risks and Mitigation of Consequences of Natural and Manmade Emergencies in the Russian Federation’; and the Program of Basic Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

The research results are shown in a mulivolume series “Safety of Russia”: The analysis of losses caused by catastrophes of natural and manmade character is conducted on the basis different methods and approaches:

- the study of initiation and development of catastrophic states of technological systems that result from operational processes and impacts from natural environment and people; 

- the summarizing of statistical data on real emergencies, including those described in the annual reports about emergencies in Russia;

- probabilistic safety analysis based on event trees and fault trees and the use of F-N curves for different facilities and emergencies

These methods are in many ways reflected and applied in various regulation documents of the Russian Technological Supervision Agency, the EMERCOM and the Russian Atomic Supervision Agency.

In conformity with the new legislation on technical regulation, the assessment of risks is much more compulsory than in the federal laws that existed before. A most essential task of the project is harmonization of risk assessment and loss estimation methods and approaches used in Russia with those in CIS and NATO countries.

HAZUS and OpenSHA: Authority Versus Adaptability in Loss Estimation

Keith Porter. CALTech. USA

HAZUS-MH, a product of the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, is a nearly complete, authoritative multihazard loss-estimation tool for emergency planning. In contrast with commercial loss software, HAZUS is free, its methodology is well documented, developed by recognized experts in earthquake, hurricane, and flood. In part to provide authoritativeness, the software code is closed and largely static. It cannot accommodate advances in the science of hazard and vulnerability. Nevertheless, HAZUS provides emergency managers, researchers, and others with baseline loss estimates that to some degree represent a national standard. OpenSHA is in an earlier development stage, but is taking a different direction. A modest effort by the U.S. Geological Survey, OpenSHA is comprises open-source software for seismic hazard analysis. OpenSHA offers researchers open-source code Java code with plug-and-play capability to combine various earthquake fault rupture models, ground-motion intensity relationships, and geotechnical information, in stand-alone or distributed computing environments. It uses freely available Generic Mapping Tools for visualization, versus the Mapinfo and Arcinfo GIS platforms HAZUS users choose between. Users and developers can examine, modify, and contribute code, limited only by compliance with interface requirements. Limited loss-estimation capability will be added this year, allowing OpenSHA to form the basis for open-source software for seismic risk modeling.

Scientific-methodical Approach to the Creating of United Interagency System of Loss Estimation from Emergencies of Technological, Natural and Terrorist Character.

Vladimir P. Avdotyin. Civil Defense and Disaster Management Research Institute, EMERCOM of Russia

Analysis and prediction of economical loss from emergencies is being  developed at FSO CDDMRSRI since 1976 and has 5 phases. Critical analysis of these phases makes it possible to draw the following conclusions.

Important scientific-methodical results of researching are structuring of the economical losses with separation of direct economical losses and indirect (consequential) losses, including losses caused by the break of production works, losses of the  “third  party”, expences for prevention and liquidation of emergencies. While the problem of direct losses has been more or less clarified, but the problem of indirect economical losses demands further well-grounded scientific study. First of all, we mean losses inflicted on “third party” that become apparent in cascade effects (including those of intersectoral character), long-term emergency consequences etc.

The problem is aggravated by situation when difficult estimated components of indirect damage could be in many times over the direct loss.

Developing these conclusions formulated framed interdepartmental approach to loss estimation.

Risk Analysis and Loss Estimation in Cases of Accidents at High Risk Facilities in the Process of Industrial Safety Declaration.

A.I. Grazhdankin. Science and Engineering

Center ‘Industrial Safety’.

Over the past ten years the intensive development of risk analysis methods has favorably influenced regulation activities in Russia. In conformity with Russian legislation the risk analysis methodology is the basis for industrial safety declaration, for damage infliction liability insurance, for planning accident liquidation, and for developing technical regulations. In Russian legislative and normative documents (RD 03-418-01, RD 03-496-02, STO RD Gasprom 39-110-084-2003, Methodological Manual on Pipeline Risk Assessment Joint Stock company “Transneft”, and others) not only the practical procedure of risk assessment is regulated, but also the approach to technogenic risk management which is an effective step to govern the process of ensuring safety in engineered environment.

Accident risk as a measure of threat indicates possibility of accident occurrence at high risk facility (HRF) the scale of consequences. An HRF accident can be referred to chance phenomena. Therefore a measure of threat (risk of an accident) can be estimated when a random quantity of damage inflicted in the accident is assessed. In the practice of industrial safety declaration and quantitative estimation of risk from an accident on HRF, main numerical characteristics of random values (material and human losses) are assessed. Examples of comparative analysis of risk connected with accidents and industrial safety declaration practiced in Russia.

Analysis of risk from accidents at HRF performed in the frames of industrial safety declaration:

- is an effective procedure of providing decision makers with objective information,

- allows not only to reveal weak points at HRF, but also to develop concrete adequate measures to ensure industrial and environmental safety on HRF.

Software Developed by KOERI for the Estimation
of Earthquake Losses

Eser Durukal. Bo?aziçi University, Kandilli Observatory and

Earthquake Research Institute

KOERI  has developed a methodology and attendant software for scenario earthquake risk assessments. In addition to the author Mustafa Erdik, Nuray Ayd?no?lu, Yasin Fahjan and Bilge Siyahi have contributed to this development. Earthquake hazard considered in the methodology was calculated both probabilistically and deterministically separately. The software is capable to perform building damage estimation analysis using both intensity and spectral displacement based methodologies. It is also able to estimate the casualties and direct economic and financial losses associated with building damages. The software operates through geo-cells systems. Geo-cells (grids) facilitate the manipulation of data on building stock, population and earthquake hazards. It is developed using the MapBasic language and runs efficiently under MapInfo software providing flexibility in displaying the outputs. In order to perform building damage and loss analysis, the building inventory stock database should be provided for each geo-cell. The seismic hazard information in terms of intensities for intensity based-analysis and spectral accelerations for spectral displacement-based analysis should also be aggregated at the center of geo-cell. To compute the damage probability ratios intensity based vulnerabilities and/or spectral displacement based fragility curves for each building class type should be specified. Given the damage probability distributions, probable maximum losses and average annualized losses can also be estimated for general or specific applications such as portfolio analyses.  To estimate landslide potentials under earthquake exposure a  peripheral software that uses the same input format of the main module was developed. It also operates through Geo-cells systems to facilitate the manipulation of data for soil type, slope gradient and earthquake hazards.

Problems of Accident Risk Assessment and Potential Loss
Appraisal in Oil, Gas and Chemical Industry.

Yury G.Matvienko, SergeyA.Galchenko.

International Institute of Engineering Safety.

Accident risk assessment and potential loss appraisal are the important and effective tools for choosing adequate managing measures to increase safety level.

In this report the results of existing approaches to determine potential loss due to industrial accidents are described. The methods of calculation for main damage types are listed: property damage, business interruption, the third part liability losses and environmental losses. The attempt to estimate the potential losses resulted from unauthorized intervention   into activities of industrial facility is carried out.

Complex risk assessment and loss appraisal algorithm, which takes in to consideration specific features of oil, gas and chemical industry units, is described. On the basis of this algorithm the program code is developed.

Internet-based Methods for Assessing Damage and Operational Risk for Critical Infrastructures

S.A. Timashev, L.V. Polouian

Science and Engng Center "Reliability and Safety of

Large Systems", Ural Branch, RAS.

The paper gives analysis of existing methods for assessing damage and operational risk of such critical geo-technical infrastructures as pipelines, electrical grids and such. The risk is determined as the product of the conditional probability of failure (CPOF) and the total overall consequence of a given type of failure. Main attention is paid to quantitative methods of assessing the damage due to failure. Three components of damage are considered: 1) possible number of mortalities / injuries; 2) damage of the environment; 3) purely economic damage (loss of property). Analysis is given of existing approaches to assessing of all the three components of damage, as related to the ultimate goals of such assessments (fast preliminary assessment right after the incident/catastrophe, assessment of the maximal/average/minimal damage for the purposes of design or optimization of pipeline operation management, etc.). An analysis is conducted of existing software programs for assessing failure damages of civilian objects. Some considerations are presented on possible approaches to creating software means for quantitative and qualitative assessment of a full group of damages that follow any technical catastrophe. As an example, a software program PRIMA (Pipeline RIsk MAnagement) designed (by the Sci. & Engng Center and WEKT Inc.) specifically for pipeline analysis is described. This package facilitates risk-based management of pipeline systems integrity and safety, which contains a model of risk assessment. PRIMA package is Internet-Intranet based and has an open architecture. This allows using the PRIMA software in the remote access mode from any place on the globe.

Damages monitoring and estimation at surface transport functioning.

Yuri V. Trofimenko, Automobile and Road Construction University.

Damages monitoring and estimation at surface transport functioning algorithm includes the identification of transport influence on environment, the development of estimation and forecast methods of that influence on different detailed elaboration levels: automobile – human habitat, traffic flow – road section, traffic – road net (urbanized territory). Damage gauge: habitat quality changes (territorial transport capacity, automobile ecological safety level), financial expenditure at liquidation and/or prevention of negative transport influence on environment, humans’ health risks, ecosystem’s degradation at roadside territory.

The Analysis of Risk Management Costs Including Compensation Costs and Insurance Mechanisms

The Analysis of Risk Management Costs Including

Compensation Costs and Insurance Mechanisms.

O. Kovalevich.  Research Center for Nuclear and Radiological Safety.

The risk management of potentially hazardous facility is not possible unless the fund distribution during the facility construction and maintenance is optimal and the necessary compensation of loss in case the emergency occurs. The full costs (C) can be presented as the sum of three components: the costs (C1) of reducing the probability of emergency occurrence at the facility, the costs (C2) of minimizing the emergency consequences, and costs (C3) of the loss compensation. If there exist an emergency probability dependence on costs (C1), a value of consequences dependence on costs (C2) and a medium-expected value of potential loss (C3) over the facility’s life service, then a task has emerged to define the minimum costs (C). Simple analytical solutions for the inverse proportion between the emergency probability and C1, and for the inverse proportion between the emergency probability and the value of consequence (losses) C2 were found. Various special cases were analyzed.

Different models for third parties’ insurance of potentially hazardous facilities are being considered. Taking into account an emergency probability and the scale of damage, the conditions necessary for involving the interested parties (insurers, in particular) are being formulated. The dynamics of financial flows before and after the insurance cases is being determined.

Determination of Risks and Failures of Technical Systems

Using Computational -Experiment Methods.

V.V. Moskvichev, A.M. Lepyekhin, A.Ye.Burov

Institute of Computational Modeling of Siberian Branch of the RAS.

This report presents a review of research in reliability and safety of technical systems carried out at the Department for Machine Science of ICM SB RAS.

The following issues are considered: 1) analysis of failure causes of complex technical systems (CTS) in various industries and types of their limiting states (primary, additional, emergency); 2) methods of checking calculation on the fracture toughness; 3) computational algorithms and technologies on life-cycle design of welded structures; 4) parameters of residual life time assessment, reliability and risk-analysis of CTS. The basic data for the calculations were obtained from numerous tests on the fracture toughness and analysis of technological and operational defects of CTS. Developed methods were applied in calculations for a variety of structural applications including building, crane and ship structures, welded joints of a reactor and excavators, propeller blades of airplanes, frame structures of spaceships, pressure vessels, and pipeline systems.

Some Approaches to the Estimation of Losses  from Natural Catastrophes and Industrial Accidents in the CIS countries

Vladimir V.Zatsarinnyi, Institute for Machine Sciences, RAS

The task of risk estimation and management aimed at prevention or minimization of accidents and disasters is impossible without reliable assessment of damage from real and potential accidents. Therefore it is extremely urgent to generalize the available national and intergovernmental experience of creating techniques on the evaluation of damage from natural and technogenic accidents.

The Temporary Technique for the estimation of losses from consequences of natural and technogenic accidents, developed in Ukraine, is based on the universal principle of the evaluation of damage from various accidents inflicted on people, environment and objects of national economy. The technique in question implies the aggregation of characteristic local losses, both per factor and per percipient. Detailed formulas to estimate all basic kinds of the above-mentioned losses are given.

The Manual on the Methods for loss estimation (1st edition), worked out in Armenia, is another example of estimating losses from natural disasters. Techniques for estimating losses resulting from landslips of various intensity are described. The losses inflicted in different vital functions are grouped into so called «objects of risk» like buildings of various kinds (residential, production and non-production), transport communications and constructions (both automobile and railway roads and bridges), critical infrastructure, agricultural fields, etc. (all with reference to the territory of Armenia).

The Manual is intended for practical use and contains a number of examples for calculation of real losses in various objects of national economy.

Similar techniques will be used to work out economically judged recommendations on minimization of risk from emergencies and approaches to risk standardization in practical risk management.

Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology

EU-FP6- NERIES Project

Joint Research Activity – JRA3

Shakemaps and Rapid Earthquake Loss Estimation

Mustafa Erdik. Bogazici University, Istanbul

NERIES project aims to combine Networking, Transnational Access and Joint Research Activities to promote improved access to distributed databases, common protocols, standardized procedures and; develop a new generation of hazard and risk assessment tools designed to improve monitoring and understanding of the earthquake process.

Shakemap and Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response and public information. This activity is aimed at establishing rapid estimation of earthquake damages and casualties throughout the Euro-Med region. Fulfilling this objective requires the development of a state-of-the-art earthquake risk assessment methodology and simulation system that can be applied by concerned agencies on a European or national level.

The objectives of the JRA-3 project will be realized by carrying out the following three major tasks:

Task-1: Evaluation of the existing tools on urban earthquake loss assessment.

Task-2: Development of “Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER)”.

(ELER can be used either in real-time or in scenario mode)

Task-2a – Earthquake shaking estimation 

Task-2b – Earthquake Vulnerability

Task-3: Development of the ELER Software

Task-4: ELER Utilization/Applications

The main project partners of this 3-year project are Bogazici University-Istanbul, Imperial College-London, NORSAR-Oslo and Rose School-Pavia.

Methods for Estimation of Losses from Fires of Natural

Character and from Floods on Agricultural Fields.

Alexander V.Epikhin. Civil Defense and Disaster Management Research Institute, EMERCOM of Russia

The method of loss estimation from fire-sites is indented for express forest loss estimation.

The method is based on digital analysis of space images, detection of fire-sites, character definition of burned out forest, economical loss estimation.

This method of loss estimation with using space techniques, is intended for express-estimation of agriculture losses that were caused by floods.

The method is based on digital analysis of space images of one territory at the different moments (before and after flooding). Further combination and analysis of the processed images make it possible to estimate agricultural losses according to projective cover before and after flooding.

Geoinformation System “Extremum”.

Sergey A. Kachanov. Civil Defense and Disaster Management

Research Institute, EMERCOM of Russia

The main purpose of GIS "Extremum" is the estimation of potential  consequences of strong seismic events. The system is based on mathematical methods of modeling.  Construction of these models is based exploring proceeded process (forecasting systems and forecasting objects).

Under the solution of the Council of Europe the experimental operative monitoring began on August 1, 2000 to forecast the destructive earthquake possible consequences with the help of the Russian GIS "Extremum". This monitoring continued till the present time at the CIS territory.

The general reliability of the consequences forecasts is about 90 %.

On the basis of elaborated seismic risk maps (complexes of) measures for risk reduction on seismic territory and plans for rational distribution of forces as well as means of emergency situations liquidation can be worked out, which stimulates the increase the efficiency of invested funds.

Methodological Basis of Forest Fires Loss Estimation and Risk Assessment.

Yuri V.Podrezov. Civil Defense and Disaster Management Research Institute, EMERCOM of Russia

The problem of damage estimation in forest fire emergencies consists in the estimation of direct and indirect losses caused by this type of emergency.  In market economy the calculation of indirect losses is ambiguous. The direct loss could be estimated, but it’s very difficult. Thus, during the modeling of loss estimation (retrospective, actual, prognosis) it is rational to start from the application task, for which estimation is conducted. For example, in case of direct loss estimation in systems of informatically-analitical support of management decision for liquidation emergency fire situation, it is necessary to solve the problem of prognosis scale (10 percent, 20 etc.) and estimation value (either the – percent of forest loss or on the basis of price).Also it is very important to estimate component of direct loss: economical, ecological and social damage.

Methodical approaches, mathematical models, taking into account these peculiarities of damage estimation in forest fire emergencies, are characterized in complete report.

OpenSees Project

Yoshikazu TAKAHASHI. Kyoto University.  Japan

OpenSees has been developed by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, USA, for modelling and simulating the seismic response of structural and geotechnical systems. It is an object-oriented software framework for numerical simulation through an open-source development process. Supported by the recent advancement of experimental test methods, numerical simulation, and high-speed communication networks, it is possible to distribute geographically the testing of structural systems using hybrid experimental-computational simulation.

One of the barriers for this advanced testing is the lack of flexible software for hybrid simulation using heterogeneous experimental equipment. To address this need, collaborating with OpenSees, an object-oriented software framework (OpenFRESCO) is designed, developed, implemented and demonstrated for distributed experimental-computational simulation of structural systems. The software computes the imposed displacements for a range of test methods and co-ordinates the control of local and distributed configurations of experimental equipment. The object-oriented design of the software promotes the sharing of modules for experimental equipment, test set-ups, simulation models, and test methods. The communication model for distributed hybrid testing is similar to that used for parallel computing to solve structural simulation problems.

Global Natural Hazard Risk Identification and Loss

Estimation: Link to Economic Development.

Arthur Lerner-Lam. Columbia University

Two recent reports by the World Bank and the United Nations quantify the global exposure of populations and economic activity to natural hazards.  For example, the World Bank’s disaster risk “Hotspots “study estimates risk levels by combining hazard exposure with historical vulnerability for two indicators of elements at risk—gridded population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per unit area — for six major natural hazards: earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones. (Earthquake risks are incorporated using a formulation based on the GSHAP studies.)  Calculating relative risks for each grid cell rather than for countries as a whole provides estimates of risk levels at sub-national scales.  These can then be used to estimate aggregate relative multiple hazard risk at regional and national scales.  The UN’s Disaster Risk Index study achieves essentially the same result. By casting mortality and economic loss in geographic terms, both studies have provided baseline arguments for linking disaster losses to other factors inhibiting economic growth, and for linking hazard mitigation to strategies for sustainable development.

However, the global analysis undertaken in these projects is clearly limited by issues of scale as well as by the availability and quality of data. For some hazards, there exist only 15- to 25-year global records with relatively crude spatial information. Data on historical disaster losses, and particularly on economic losses, are also limited. On one hand the data are adequate for general identification of areas of the globe that are at relatively higher single- or multiple-hazard risk than other areas.  On the other hand they are inadequate for understanding the absolute levels of risk posed by any specific hazard or combination of hazards.  Nevertheless it is possible to assess in general terms the exposure and potential magnitude of losses to people and their assets in these areas. Such information, although not ideal, can still be very useful for informing a range of disaster prevention and preparedness measures, including prioritization of resources, targeting of more localized and detailed risk assessments, implementation of risk-based disaster management and emergency response strategies, and development of long-term plans for poverty reduction and economic development.

This paper will examine the conclusions of the general global studies, and make recommendations for improving the acquisition of regional and local disaster-loss data.

Ecological & Economical Consequences of Emergency Situations, Role of Human Factor.

Iakov D. Vishnyakov, Sergey A. Rybkin.

Moscow Sate University of Management

The role of human factor in emergency situations is very important. In many cases staff ability and qualification are the key points in reducing or increasing of consequences in emergency situations. The reason is very simple: advanced technologies of the 21 century, require advanced skills and perfect ability in decision making, but that is not always happened (they  are not always up to the mark). The main perspectives in reducing the  risk of human failure in decision making for emergency situation are:

1.Creation of an international accreditation system for top management and specialist level qualifications in decision making in emergency situations.

2.Development of national standards of education of decision makers in emergency situations.

3.Creation of interactive methods and technologies for education of decision makers in emergency situations. It is necessary to focus attention to the Decision Making Person (DMP) and his or her permanent ability through and by help of system of education, background and psychological characteristics. Another side is developing the imitation model of decision making in the process of emergency situation sequences elimination. It is possible to estimate role of human factor in effective management with help of qualitative and quantitative characteristics.

Social Losses and Features of Their Estimation

Rasim S. Akhmetkhanov

Institute for Machine Sciences, RAS

The report is focused on estimation social losses inflicted by emergencies of various character. A degree of injury of people subjected to impact of various dangerous factors of natural and manmade character is considered. The probability of injury of people is estimated either using threshold values or applying laws of injury taking into account the distribution of population during the daytime on the territory of interest  (people can stay  inside the buildings, outside or in the vehicles). The degree of detailed elaboration of emergency situation development, direct and indirect losses determines methods of the analysis of development extreme situation and estimations of losses. The report provides general algorithm for calculation of integrated social, ecological and economic losses, and also an example of calculation of damage probability for buildings and people due to explosion of a fuel-air mixture (propane). 

Quantitative Assessment of Terrorist Risks

Dmirtry Reznikmov Institute for Machine Sciences, RAS

In performing qualitative assessments of terrorist risk one should apply approaches developed for assessing risks of natural and manmade catastrophes. These include probabilistic, possibilistic, fuzzy sets models, game theory and others. In traditional probabilistic model terrorist risk is defined as the function of (1) threat of terrorist attack, (2) vulnerability towards the attack, and (3) expected value of losses provided that the attack occurs and is successful. This model allows to formalize the procedure of assessing terrorist risks and provides an approach to managing terrorist risks through reducing terrorist threat, vulnerability or expected losses.

The traditional model has the following weak points: (1) The approach considers only the threat the of terrorist attack of a single type and does not address the issue of intensity of terrorist attack; 2) The approach uses a simplified representation of vulnerability in which there is either a successful attack with damage or ‘no success’ with ‘no damage’; 3) consequences are represented by an expected value. The model does not consider the fact that consequences are determined by many uncertain factors. 4) This model gives a static picture of terrorist risk, that does not allow to address the dynamic properties of the terrorist threats and vulnerabilities towards these threats. Besides, (5) it allows to take into account only direct losses inflicted within the time frame near the terrorist attack and does not consider indirect, secondary, cascade and intangible losses.

To overcome these weak points a special Module for Assessing Terrorist Risks is being developed in the frame of the current LERA-project. The module allows to aggregate risks of terrorist attacks of different types into a comprehensive terrorist risk index, to categorize facilities in terms of comprehensive risk indexes, and provides a basis for making decisions regarding investments into the creation of protection systems.

Conception for a Risk Verification, Safety, Resource and Losses Complex Technical System in Terms of Energy Information Analizer

Valeriy PORTNOV. Independent Nonprofit Organization “System Voluntary Certification “Sert-GRUPP”

The author offers the “ÂåÐÁèД computer program, which includes a conception for a risk verification and a new understanding of the complex technical system safety, which links safety with possible losses in case of safety mismanagement or due to a financial deficit in budgeting of safety measures.

The Analysis of the Main Causes for the Initiation and Development of Accidents at Trunk Pipelines. Laws and Norms of their Protection in Russia and Abroad.

R.A. Taranov, Moscow Bauman University.

A spectrum of possible kinds of accidents at trunk pipelines is shown. The spectrum can be divided into groups that correspond to the most common causes of pipeline accidents.

The basic Russian laws and technical norms of general and functional character concerning emergency prevention and counteraction to acts of terror at trunk pipelines are analyzed. Laws and norms specially developed to increase pipelines protection from natural, technogenic accidents and acts of terror are also analyzed. The Russian laws and norms are compared with the relevant laws and norms outside Russia.

The analysis of the condition the Russian pipelines are in, and of the main causes for the occurrence and development of accidents at trunk pipelines is also conducted.

Appendix 2.

CV of Key-not Speakers

Charles SCAWTHORN

Education:

Kyoto University, Japan: Dr.Eng. Earthquake Engineering, 1981
University of California: Studies in Urban and Regional Planning, 1975-76
Department of Defense: Certificate in Planning and Design of Protective Construction, 1968
Lehigh University, Pennsylvania: M.S.C.E. Structural Engineering, 1968
COOPER UNION, New York: Civil Engineering, 1966

Position:

Professor of Lifeline Engineering in the Department of Urban Management, Kyoto University.

 

Principal. SPA Risk LLC USA,

Research interests:

Assessment of  organizational and community risk due to natural and technological hazards
Developed integrated risk mitigation programs.
Assessment of natural hazards (earthquake, wind, flood, volcanism, fire, earth failure) and technological hazards fire, blast, hazmat release, chemical, biological, nuclear and radiological weapons)
Assessment of risk for multinational corporations and government agencies; major portfolio risk for large insurance companies and national insurance programs; assessment of critical facilities such as LNG plants and data processing and emergency operating centers.
Structural and infrastructure analysis and design, including design of new buildings and towers and related facilities, primarily in the energy sector.  Forensic investigations of fires, explosions and building collapse.
Multihazards Loss Estimation
Developing models for data collection and archiving

Eser DURUKAL

Education:

Ph.D. in Earthquake Engineering, February, 1998, Bo?aziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey
M.Sc. in Earthquake Engineering, June, 1992, Bo?aziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey
B.Sc. in Civil Engineering, June 1989, Bo?aziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey

Position:

Assistant Professor, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Department of Earthquake Engineering, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey.

Research interests:

- 3-D strong ground motion modelling,
- Earthquake scenarios, earthquake loss estimation,
- Assessment of seismic hazard and assessment of design basis ground motion,
- Strong motion instrumentation, design and implementation of free-field and structural networks,
- Earthquake response of historical structures, non-destructive testing and evaluation.
- Ambient- and forced vibration testing of structures,
- Structural system identification

Arthur LERNER-LAM

Position:

Director, Center for Hazards and Risk Research, The Earth Institute
Associate Director for Seismology, Geology, and Tectonophysics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Doherty
Senior Research Scientist Adjunct Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University

Education:

1975: A.B. (geophysics, summa cum laude) Princeton University
Undergraduate advisors: T. Jordan, F. A. Dahlen, R. Phinney
1982: Ph.D. (earth science) Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego

Research Interests:

Structure, composition, and thermal state of the Earth, global and regional of the crust and upper mantle in mountain belts and subduction zones, and crustmantle interactions; Exploration of earth properties and earthquakes with portable seismic networks;
Algorithms for synthetic seismogram computation;
Observational seismology and digital data analysis;
Characterization and analysis of high frequency waveforms;
Regional wave propagation, scattering and attenuation;
Earthquake relocation techniques and source studies;
Methods of inversion, inference and simulation;
High-performance computation and visualization;
Seismic hazard assessment and mitigation;
Multiple natural hazard risk identification, assessment and management;
Risk-conscious economic development;

KEITH A. PORTER

Education

Stanford University: Ph.D., Structural Engineering, 2000
University of California, Berkeley: M.Eng. Structural Engineering, 1990
University of California, Davis: B.S. Civil Engineering, 1987

Position

SPA Risk LLC, Pasadena CA; Principal;
California Institute of Technology, Senior Researcher;

Research Interests:

Probabilistic multi-hazard risk, building performance, and risk-management decision-making, with an emphasis on economic seismic performance of buildings and other civil systems. Seismic vulnerability, loss estimation, and multi-hazard risk management
Development of open-source software for multihazard loss modeling; cost-benefit analysis of multi-hazard risk mitigation
Research projects on life-safety and economic consequences of earthquakes and hurricanes to individual structures, large numbers of buildings, lifelines, and communities.
Developed seismic rehabilitation measures for commercial and industrial facilities.

Yoshikazu TAKAHASHI

Education:

Kyoto University Dr. Eng. , 2002
Kyoto University B.S. Engineering, 1994

Current position:

Associate Professor of Disaster Prevention Research Institute.

Research interests:

Seismic behavior of bridge systems, including innovative high performance RC column with unbonded bars,
Information technology, including object-oriented modeling for computational-experimental simulation of structural systems

Mustafa ERDIK

Education

1975: PhD Civil Engineering. Rice University, Houston, Texas
1972: M.Sc. Civil Engineering. Rice University, Houston, Texas
1970: B.Sc. Civil Engineering. Middle East Technical University, Ankara

Position:

Chairman, Dept. of Earthquake Engrg., Boðazici University

Vladimir P. AVDOTYIN

Scientific Degree, Position, Organization:

Leading researcher.